Seeking to more clearly establish Newsom's conditional odds of winning the 2028 presidential election, rather than having to aggregate multiple markets.
By "nominee" I mean for the Democratic Party, at the time of the election. (So for example if he's the democratic nominee but then he dies or drops out before election day, that's "not the nominee". Or if he's the nominee for any other party, that's also "not the nominee".)
I will bet in this market
Update 2025-09-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Wins criterion: I will defer to and match the resolution of @Tetraspace's market (@/Tetraspace/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20) on who is elected president, including in disputed/contested scenarios.
@SaviorofPlant Also why is "Is not nominee, wins" an option...is the case for this resolving YES that he, like, becomes the VP nominee at the convention and then the presidential nominee steps down before the election? Or is he still the nominee in this scenario, and it only resolves YES if he wins as an independent / third party? (should probably add "Democratic nominee" to the title if this is the scenario for that option)
@SaviorofPlant Yeah, as I said in the description, it's about being the Democratic nominee at the time of the election. So if he's not the nominee and then the nominee stands down and he becomes the nominee before the election, that resolves to "is the nominee". But if he runs independent/third party/republican and wins, it resolves to "not the nominee".
I'm aware the chances are vanishingly small that he'll win the presidential election without being the democratic nominee on election day, but I just wanted to include all logical possibilities to remove the risk of resolving NA.
I did consider replacing every instance of "nominee" with "Democratic Party nominee" but I wanted to keep extraneous words to a minimum. If enough people think the extra clarity is worth it, I'll edit it.
@Fion How does this resolve if the election results are disputed, Newsom does not assume the presidency, but there is a case to be made that he won?
@SaviorofPlant Hmm... That's tricky. I think I'll pass the buck. I'll follow the resolution of this market: /Tetraspace/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20
It's got 1.7k traders and a creator who I trust to be as objective and reasonable as possible. (Plus, don't tell anybody, but I'm arbing this market against that one.)