Will the "core" Jewish population of the USA be greater than that of Israel by 2030
11
Ṁ232
2030
14%
chance

Judged according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_population_by_country

I'll go with the numbers in the table, assuming an equivalent still exists in 2030. I will ignore any section on "Debate over United States numbers" and just look at the bottom line (i.e. the table, assuming it exists).

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predicts NO

I thought Israel was growing faster because they have a higher % of ultra orthodox

@JonathanRay that is halfway correct. Not only do their ultra-orthodox members have more kids than their American counterparts, Israeli Secular jews have the highest birthrate of any secular group in the western world (or westernized country).

predicts NO

@JonathanRay this market can more or less be interpreted as "Will any event cause greater than >1 million israeli jews to die leave by 2030".

There is a huge fertility differential as you said, and also American Jews often outmarry and Israeli Jews generally don't.

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