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Sigh... Why does reality always have to be more complicated than we anticipate it will be?

Ok, I haven't had enough time (or any time actually) to dig into the news and details and I apologize for this... but I can take a minute to write what is going through my mind on this market and hope it helps not to have it turn into a market purely about my interpretation of potential facts on the ground.

- If Hezbollah launches a tomato to northern Israel and says "this was the retaliation!", and that was all we got until the final date, notwithstanding their words, this would resolve NO. The attack has to speak for itself.

- If what David Collier says it's "look like" in the tweet posted in the below comment turns out to be factual to the detail, this would resolve YES. That is, (i) thousands of long range rockets to Tel Aviv + airport comfortably pass the threshold, and (ii) even though the market is literally about a "launch", I don't find a meaningful difference between stopping the rockets mid-air and literally 15 minutes before they were already fully set to be launched, so that part would not be a problem to resolving YES.

- However, both (i) and (ii) need to be approximately true. If the facts are that they had the long range rockets there and ready but no final decision had been made to launch before they were preemptively hit by Israel, this would resolve NO (if today was the final day). That's because if a final decision hadn't been made, that moves us too far from the requirement of a "launch". Plus, it becomes speculative to know if and how they planned to use them. But, probably most importantly, this market is also about dates, so the "when" is also key. In short, for a non-launched attack to push this to YES, we need to be somewhat confident that it was about to be launched.

- If shit hits the fan before the deadline with Hezbollah and Israel, no matter the details of the back and forth and how and why it scales up, it will resolve YES. (just like, if there was a market on a whether fetus X will turn into a baby before the end of next year, and all goes well, that would resolve yes even if you could argue about the exact moment where it meaningfully changed into a baby).

- If what Hezbollah did manage to launch on its own passes the bar (sorry, haven't researched), then of course this is a YES. If it doesn't, and on its own it's not special and different from the usual, then it would only be a YES if it happens to serve as strong evidence that they indeed intended to launch all those rockets Israel downed (sorry, again, haven't looked into it, I'm just speculating).

So, as it stands right now, iiuc, the factual questions to determine whether this should have already resolved YES or we should still wait and see what comes out or happens next are:

(1) How big was Hezbolla's actual launched attack, and does it clearly stand out by itself to the types and scale of attacks we've been seeing these months? If it was, then resolve YES. If it wasn't, then we keep waiting. And

(2) How certain are we that Israel preempted an attack that was already fully decided to be launched, of around the announced scale? If we are sufficiently certain that this was the case by the market close date or earlier, then resolve YES (e.g., did Hezbollah confirm it?). If we are quite suspicious but not certain enough, and nothing big happens before the date then (ugh) N/A. If we don't find decent reasons to believe this other than a random tweet here and there, and nothing extra big happens, then NO.

Also, since this has become more subjective than I meant to, I won't be trading on this in the future. (or is it fairer to sell?)

Thanks @Helado. I agree reality has turned out a little more complicated than it could have. :) Thanks for laying that out.

I think it should be straightforward to resolve YES based on your further explanation.

This article (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/25/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-strikes/) is a good summary of what has also been widely reported. (Consider it my source for all of the below points unless I indicate an additional source)

• It was the largest attack in months (340 rockets and dozens of drones from Hezbollah)

• Hezbollah's leader, Nasrallah, said Hezbollah had responded to "balance deterrence" after the assassination of Shukr had "crossed all red lines"

• Although Israel intel indicated that the attack was meant to be much larger, Hezbollah's leader said the attack aimed at facilities involved in the killing of Shukr was a success

• The only thing I would dispute from your expanded criteria is whether the timing or decision had to be made by Hezbollah before the preemptive attack (if they pulled up their plans, they still executed them). Nevertheless, Hezbollah's launches were effectively simultaneous with the IDF's preemptive attack & no one is disputing the intel or questioning the preemptive attack, so it seems extremely likely that the timing was the original timing Hezbollah had intended to attack and the IDF's intel was very good. (One source (there are others): https://x.com/IDFSpokesperson/status/1828133570029748291 - screenshot below)

  

Also FWIW on the question of timing, the IDF announced it had launched the preemptive attack at 9:51pm EDT on 9/24 (https://x.com/IAFsite/status/1827524128280076711) and Hezbollah announced it had begun retaliation for the assassination of Fuad Shukr at around 11:14pm EDT the same night.

I previously shared an English translation of the statement Hezbollah made at that time. Here is the original Arabic with translation. (https://x.com/ZaidBenjamin5/status/1827548257003917614)

"Hezbollah announced that it had completed the “first stage” of its attack to avenge the assassination of the senior commander, Fuad Shukr, and appeared to be calling it a day, at least for now." -NYT

After Attacks, Israel and Hezbollah Swiftly Move to Talk of Containment https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/25/world/middleeast/israel-hezbollah-attacks-escalation.html?smid=nytcore-android-share

@Helado can you resolve this or explain your thinking?

Just been suddenly overly busy to check the news and research enough, nothing more than that. I'll get to this soon. Links and arguments are more than welcome

No worries! Thank you!

Thought dump went up there

I understand why the market is so high, but I do think that since Israeli sources are emphasizing that they prevented a major counterstrike, there is some room for analysis.

This feels like a YES to me, because it was their retaliation, though i hold some no

Also ambiguous if you would consider this “the” retaliation attack per the description, both in terms of Hezbollah still possibly planning additional attacks in “some time”, as well as the fact of this first attack being heavily thwarted

The description first says "an attack on Israel’s territory (including economic waters) in retaliation of Haniyeh’s assassination (or the Hezbollah dude)", not "the attack", so I don't think 'the' should matter. This is an attack in retaliation

Resolve yes. https://english.alarabiya.net/amp/News/middle-east/2024/08/25/hezbollah-says-retaliatory-attack-on-israel-was-calculated-to-avoid-full-scale-war

I think it comes down to if the vast majority of the attack never got launched due to being pre-empted, does that mean the "promised retaliation" was actually "launched" at a scale clearly above the "size and type and frequency" of other attacks.

Hezbollah stated this was the first phase of the retaliation. The size or success of the attack is irrelevant. Despite the Israeli preemption, the Hezbollah attack was still notably higher than any of the daily attacks we’ve seen. It doesn’t come down to anything, it was the retaliation. Resolving it no would be a misresolution.

The size is relevant because it is included in the market description.

Only as a way to indicate whether it was “the retaliation”. The statement that it was the retaliation (however effective it was) should dominate here.

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/25/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-attack

Will be fascinating if the preemptive strike effectively delays or stops the revenge attack, given the spirit of the market!

The retaliation from Hezbollah is imminent now

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1827545100961955980

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1827547154665103528

Aug 22 can resolve to no.

@Helado I suggest adding more options, same as I ded in the source market.

I think you should change title to 'Before which day', by is ambiguous, even though the description clarifies

Agree. I just copied as much as possible from the original market, but that part is confusing. Editing