Will Vision Pro, and other Apple headset models, generate more than $1B revenue in 2024?
59
แน€12k
2025
80%
chance

According to Headphones Addict Airpods generated $1.76B in the first full year of 2017, and are widely considered a success by now.

At $3500 that's around 285k units.

If Apple launch more headsets with VisionOS they also count toward the revenue.

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#Apple Vision Pro
#Virtual Reality
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Related markets / potential arbitrage opportunities:

150K headsets sold in 2024: https://manifold.markets/JacksonWagner/will-apple-sell-more-than-150k-visi

285K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-fee5899b9ba1

50th percentile estimate, currently 320K: https://manifold.markets/whalelang/how-many-units-will-apples-vision-p ...markets with thresholds below this 50th percentile estimate (150K and 285K) should IMO be above 50%; markets with higher thresholds (500K+) should be lower than 50%, or else this market (currently 320K) should move a lot.

500K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-500k-mr-h

575K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea

750k: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-750k-mr-h

850K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-ecd06df8baab

1400K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-6ba0eda02079

Will Apple sell more than 150k Vision Pro headsets in 2024?
66% chance. Sales includes non-refundable, full-price preorders (if offered). At $3500 each, 150k unit sales would generate a little over half a billion dollars of revenue.

Sony refuses to increase Vision Pro screen production capacity for Apple
Even as analysts predict limited supplies of the Apple Vision Pro at launch, Apple has apparently asked Sony to make more of the headsetโ€™s eye screens โ€” and Sony has said no.

-snip-

@cloudprism Not sure why this posted twice

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