When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad? | Manifold

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

Premium

68

Ṁ110k

2046

2,027

expected

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The description and resolution criteria correspond to those of the equivalent question on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/

#Technical AI Timelines

#IMO Grand Challenge

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

Sort by:

bought Ṁ31 2027-2028 YES

I'd appreciate it if you add "open source" to the title. I made some large bets not realizing that part of the metaculus question.

@mods this is probably within your powers

bruh same

How does this resolve if it happens later than 2045?

@Nat 2045.

Related questions

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Will an AI get gold on this Olympiad by the end of 2025?

When will an AI win the $5 million XTX AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize?

Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)

Will an AI get bronze or silver (but not gold) on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?

Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2026?

When will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize?

Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?

What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Related questions

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Will an AI get bronze or silver (but not gold) on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2026?

Will an AI get gold on this Olympiad by the end of 2025?

When will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize?

When will an AI win the $5 million XTX AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize?

Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?

Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)

What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?