
AI takeoff will be slower than the midpoint of the “soft” versus “hard” AI takeoff debates as they were in 2021
Mini
7
Ṁ1042300
75%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will 2024 be the year when AI capabilities progress from AI hardware scaling hits a wall?
29% chance
Will AGI undergo a hard take-off?
19% chance
Will I be convinced that gen-AI will create tailwinds that overflow to non-gen AI aspects of hyperscalers’ by June 2025?
46% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2025?
7% chance
Will software-side AI scaling appear to be suddenly discontinuous before 2025?
24% chance
Will xAI significantly rework their alignment plan by the start of 2026?
63% chance
Will there be an AI Winter between 2022 and 2026?
15% chance
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
34% chance
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
51% chance