Conditional on at least 8 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
31
Ṁ11702100
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it. The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.
Similar markets for various amounts of warming:
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Conditional on at least 2 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
77% chance
Conditional on at least 5 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
60% chance
Conditional on at least 10 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
33% chance
Conditional on at least 3 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
74% chance
Conditional on at least 15 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
25% chance
By 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
79% chance
Will I be alive by 2100?
35% chance
Will 2.8 billion people be displaced and 1.5 billion people would die within a 2.5°C of global warming by 2150?
55% chance
Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?
Will there be 9.7 billion humans living on Earth in 2050?
45% chance