(AI virus) When will an AI first replicate onto new hardware against user intent?
(AI virus) When will an AI first replicate onto new hardware against user intent?
Mini
23
Ṁ2415
2030
2026
expected

This question resolves to the year on which the first compelling (to me) evidence of either of the following appears:

(1) a virus having a neural network as a component is deliberately designed by a malicious actor, and spreads across user hardware.

(2) an AI unboxes and spreads to new hardware in an effort to gain access to more computing resources, or to not be turned off.

"User intent" here refers to the (new) hardware's user, not the AI's (original) user. A controlled demonstration of (1) will not count for this questions resolution, since it would not be "against user intent".

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predicts HIGHER 2y

(1) Viruses aren't really a thing anymore because PC's aren't really a thing anymore. It's not 1998 and none of us are using Windows XP. Low economic incentive. (2) cost is much higher than traditional means, low economic incentives. This pushes up the timeframe, though people will create fake NN viruses for lolz and video views, much like all the Bonzi videos.

2y
predicts LOWER 2y

https://twitter.com/spthvx/status/1631409361313579008?s=46&t=gHwoO3eGDc6sgu1SSV-32w

2y

Ambiguous in case of a language model in the cloud being queried by the virus, because then the virus replicates but the LM does not

predicts LOWER 2y

@alexlyzhov You mean someone exfiltrates proprietary LM parameters? That doesn't qualify here, I can clarify the question text.

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