Will GPT-5 perform better than o1 (not preview) at AIME 2024, Codeforces elo, GPQA, or the 2024 ioi?
Mini
7
Ṁ91Dec 2
71%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
o1's scores are the ones mentioned here. https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/
Resolves yes if OpenAI or a third party tester is able to get GPT-5 to achieve higher scores on any of these benchmarks without any kind of prompt engineering or agent scaffolding
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
I had a previous question that asked whether I would judge GPT-5 smarter than 01 that is sitting at 85% yes.
Personally I am unsure why people think this since it is heavily implied GPT-5 won't utilize the scaled test-time compute paradigm which was so key to o1's success. I would bet that GPT-5 will be unable to do this and that the goal is more so achieving near o1 performance more quickly and economically
Related questions
Related questions
Will GPT-5 come out before 2027?
87% chance
Will GPT-5 reach a 1000 rating on Codeforces?
95% chance
Will GPT-5 win Bronze or better at IMO 2025?
22% chance
Will I judge GPT-5 to be smarter than o1 (not preview) after both are released?
81% chance
Will GPT-5 ace exams?
76% chance
Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?
23% chance
Will GPT-5 be more competent than me in my area of expertise?
44% chance
Will I be impressed by GPT-5?
79% chance
Will GPT-5 qualify for the USAMO?
32% chance
Will GPT-5 score higher than 1350 on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard
77% chance