Will OpenAI reach $12B annualized revenue by end of 2025?
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resolved Jul 31
Resolved
YES
4 billion: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/united-arab-emirates-fund-in-talks-to-invest-in-openai-fd4e4977
"OpenAI estimates that its revenue will balloon to $11.6 billion next year." Seems to mean full-year, not run-rate https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt-investors-funding.html?

Will OpenAI's annualized revenue reach or exceed $12 billion by the end of 2025, based on credible reports from OpenAI or the media? This market resolves yes at the point when such a report is made.

As of June 2024, OpenAI was making $3.4B in annualized revenue, after hitting $2B in February, and $1B in August 2023. Two more doublings from the current rate would be ~$13-14B.

  • Update 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced that the condition for a YES resolution has been met, citing a media report. See the linked comment for the source.

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haha they reported the $12B threshold

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-hits-12-billion-annualized-revenue-breaks-700-million-chatgpt-weekly-active-users?rc=9mzoog

@JoshYou check it out y'all

arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-openai-have-10-billion-in-reve

"OpenAI estimates that its revenue will balloon to $11.6 billion next year." Seems to mean full-year, not run-rate

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt-investors-funding.html?

4 billion: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/united-arab-emirates-fund-in-talks-to-invest-in-openai-fd4e4977

@JoshYou will o1 make money go brr? ๐Ÿ‘€

Finally an appropriate level on these OpenAI questions

@HenriThunberg my median is 20-something (three doublings)

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