This market is like Ben's market except that I am a heartless bastard and you won't sway me so easily:
Obviously I precommit not to negotiate with terrorists, no threats you make will impact my decision in either direction. I can also ban you if you violate the community guidelines, so let's keep this friendly.
I could imagine myself being bribed, but my price is high. I was following Ben's market's comments and I think nothing that was tried there will work here, so you'll have to be original. I am subsidizing this market and betting it down as additional precommitment.
Good luck.
PERSUASION PLEDGE TRACKER IS LIVE (please edit responsibly or I will turn off editing by everyone and have to do it manually)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PdA9hp7CghQR_GiilNLGwYTp9toRA4Ti8sb8HM9JMas/edit?usp=sharing
In reliance on your commitment to resolve this NO, I am purchasing a fairly large NO position. If you end up resolving YES it will significantly damage my opinion on your credibility for all future commitments you make. If some extreme circumstance convinces you to resolve YES anyways I would expect you to at least reimburse NO holders for their losses.
You and Ben both lost the fight as soon as you posted your markets. By even entertaining this question, you're admitting that there is a string of words out there that will convince you otherwise.
I call your bluff on this contrarian posture. A real heartless bastard would take more joy in making the NO holders lose thousands of mana than in being original.
@PowerTrick And by betting it down to 10% instead of 1%, Joshua has left the door open to recruit allies in favor to the NO status quo.
Anybody who bets net NO is now a member of the Institution of NO ™️.
@PowerTrick "By even entertaining this question, you're admitting that there is a string of words out there that will convince you otherwise."
I'm categorizing this under the same grouping as ”you bet Yes on Trump winning the election therefore you must support Trump". Fundamental misunderstand of what markets or betting is.
I am subsidizing this market and betting it down as additional precommitment.
If for some reason you were convinced to resolve YES, you could buy lots of YES first and recover most of these losses, or even profit. Do you also promise not to buy YES in this circumstance?
@cthor I think I should make no further specific commitments beyond the original premise that I am committed to resolve this to NO. My word is my bond, and that should be enough.
My word is my bond, and that should be enough.
Why would you feel the need to mention your NO shares as being additional precommitment, then? They're clearly neither required nor function as such.
Your attitude suggests that you don't make promises you don't intend to keep. So refusing to make a promise not to flip your position is quite suspicious, as it implies you're not confident in being able to keep that promise.