For any company to resolve YES, they must achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI’s best model on the leaderboards https://lmarena.ai/.
see https://manifold.markets/Soli/which-companies-will-achieve-a-high?play=true for 2024
mod edit - @Stralor Nov 18 25:
default settings (style control disabled)
@mods creator is inactive since ~10 months back.
Unfortunately, they never replied whether style control should be removed or not.
Regardless, Anthropic can resolve to YES already. Unless we just N/A the whole thing, with just 12 traders?
@HenriThunberg resolved Anthropic. I think we can leave this open and just make a call. Sounds like style control off is the default so we'll go with that simpler version
@Stralor well then, Mistral, Alibaba, and Baidu (and many more) have been above OpenAI for weeks – so the top 3 % results can resolve YES as well then.
Hard to get a screenshot of the style control off board, unfortunately.
@LCBOB resolves YES, xAI too https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/who-will-ever-rank-1-in-lmsys-chatb