If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it?
➕
Plus
24
Ṁ740
2031
20%
Lawsuits & civil disputes
29%
Legislation/treaties
2%
Economic crash
12%
War
0.1%
Sabotage
37%
Natural limits / diminishing returns
0.1%
Something else

Multiple choice. Assuming an AI winter happens before resolution, which of these scenarios is most likely to bring it about?

Resolves N/A if an AI winter doesn't happen.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
1 Comment
Sort by:

Model size doubles every three months.

Compute cost halves every 18 months.

Arguably there is nothing new in GPT-3/4 that wasn’t known in 2017. It’s all dividends from scaling.

Possible to see an “AI fall” as video or motion control are just very expensive.

Related questions