If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it? | Manifold

If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it?

Plus

26

Ṁ810

2031

1D

1W

1M

ALL

7%

Lawsuits & civil disputes

27%

Legislation/treaties

8%

Economic crash

11%

War

0.1%

Sabotage

47%

Natural limits / diminishing returns

0.1%

Something else

Multiple choice. Assuming an AI winter happens before resolution, which of these scenarios is most likely to bring it about?

Resolves N/A if an AI winter doesn't happen.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

Sort by:

Model size doubles every three months.

Compute cost halves every 18 months.

Arguably there is nothing new in GPT-3/4 that wasn’t known in 2017. It’s all dividends from scaling.

Possible to see an “AI fall” as video or motion control are just very expensive.

Related questions

Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?

Will AI wipe humanity by 2030?

Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?

Will an AI winter happen by 2030?

Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?

Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2025?

If the progress of AI experiences a slowdown before 2030, what might be the cause?

Will there be an AI Winter between 2022 and 2026?

Related questions

Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?

Will an AI winter happen by 2030?

Will AI wipe humanity by 2030?

Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?

Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?

Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2025?

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

If the progress of AI experiences a slowdown before 2030, what might be the cause?

Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?

Will there be an AI Winter between 2022 and 2026?