This market will resolve based on this definition of the title, with anything in the following counting:

1. Kinetic strike:

A munition launched by Russian armed forces (missile, artillery, bomb, or explosive UAV/drone) enters NATO territory and either (i) detonates on NATO territory and causes at least 5 deaths, or at least 20 serious injuries, or destroys critical infrastructure causing an outage affecting at least 100,000 people for ≥ 72 hours, or destroys at least 2 habitable buildings; or (ii) is publicly confirmed to have penetrated to a point ≥ 100 km inside a NATO member’s territory (measured as straight-line distance from the nearest point on that member’s internationally recognised border), whether or not it detonates.

2. Ground incursion:

Russian uniformed military personnel or Russian military vehicles enter NATO territory and either remain ≥ 2 hours while ≥ 5 km inside the border, or exchange fire on NATO territory.

3. Air/sea intrusion:

a) A manned Russian military aircraft enters NATO sovereign airspace over land and either penetrates ≥ 20 km inland and remains ≥ 30 minutes continuously; or enters airspace over or within 10 km of a national capital or any city/metro area of ≥ 500,000 residents and remains ≥ 5 minutes.

b) A Russian naval vessel enters a NATO member’s territorial waters and either penetrates ≥ 3 nautical miles inside the 12-nautical-mile limit and remains ≥ 60 minutes continuously.

An event counts if it is publicly confirmed by the affected NATO member’s national government or by NATO in an official statement. It must be certain that in any of these cases, Russia is responsible for it. This must come from a NATO country’s government or agency.