Reflexivity: Reflexivity is a theory that positive feedback loops between expectations and economic fundamentals can cause price trends that substantially and persistently deviate from equilibrium prices. Reflexivity's primary proponent is George Soros, who credits it with much of his success as an investor.
I think that eventually prediction markets will become important actors for the course of events, with the probabilities we create affecting the way agents behave.
If any evidence emerges that anyone at Time magazine related to the POTY used Manifold or the informations we generated were read by them, this market resolves to YES. This evidence has to come by January 2024 end.
EDIT: These informations should be related to the POTY market!
I won't bet. This market may require judgment. I'll hold a slow bar to resolve to YES.
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@PlasmaBallin Why would that alone be enough for YES? Wouldn’t they also need to at least state that someone on staff was aware of the market before the PotY was selected?
@JimHays The criteria as written are very broad, that's why:
If any evidence emerges that anyone at Time magazine related to the POTY used Manifold or the informations we generated were read by them, this market resolves to YES.
So, what if a TIME article is mostly about manifold.love, but it happens to mention that we have person of the year markets. Can we assume that it was edited by a TIME editor, and that the TIME editors are involved in the POTY selection? Or would we need to know the specific person who edited the article, and whether that person is specifically on the team that makes the choice?
@Joshua Yes, we can use assumptions. As said, a lower standard for resolution. I'll just assume anything posted at the TIME magazine is read by the TIME magazine POTY committee or whatever
@MP Hmmmm yeah I think if the TIME article happens, there's a decent chance they mention that we have markets about the person of the year. And currently looks like a 57% that the article happens.