Reflexivity: Reflexivity is a theory that positive feedback loops between expectations and economic fundamentals can cause price trends that substantially and persistently deviate from equilibrium prices. Reflexivity's primary proponent is George Soros, who credits it with much of his success as an investor.

I think that eventually prediction markets will become important actors for the course of events, with the probabilities we create affecting the way agents behave.

If any evidence emerges that anyone at Time magazine related to the 2024 POTY used Manifold or the informations we generated were read by them, this market resolves to YES. This evidence has to come by January 2025 end.

(Manifold playing a role in the 2023 POTY won't matter. An article about Manifold in early 2024 won't matter. It has to be about 2024, which means any impact needs to happen in late 2024, like October or November)

EDIT: These informations should be related to the POTY market!

I won't bet. This market may require judgment. I'll hold a slow bar to resolve to YES.

Related markets

MP

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Will a mainstream media outlet publish a story on how prediction markets affected the outcome of the primaries?NO

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MP

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Will evidence emerge that Manifold played ANY role in the Time's 2023 POTY?NO

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