Will Perfect Surveillance be possible before the year 2040?
Mini
7
Ṁ148
2039
12%
chance

I will define Perfect Surveillance as the following:

  • One could find out any piece of information about anyone, no matter how obscure, quite easily via a simple online search. This can be accomplished by means of a form of universal doxxing.

  • A reliable method for identifying pen-names can be found.

  • We have direct access to surveillance cameras for the purposes of binge-watching at will...

  • A version of a Social Credit System is implemented worldwide.

  • Enough people are willing to record, and post even their most private moments online, even if they falsely assume that no one will ever find out who they are...

  • We have a reliable way of reading human minds, or inferring what a human brain is thinking about, at least 50% of the time.

  • An AI can be deployed to predict what someone will do in the near future.

  • The only thing holding all of this at bay is the apparent goodwill of the stewards of such information.

Some of these capabilities are already present within the most repressive regimes such as China and North Korea (and no good-will on the part of the watchers can be reasonably expected). There is also speculation that the USA is technically capable of this level of surveillance already, if they choose to allow it.

For this to resolve as "Yes", only about 4 of the 8 points as listed above are necessary. One could possibly argue that goodwill on the part of the observers is a key lynchpin to holding all of the back, but so far this seems to be something that can't be accomplished even in practice.

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