Are we saying there’s a 61% chance of aliens being headlines before 2050, in 30 years? The market is either way overvalued or the resolution criteria/date needs to change

How does this resolve if we find out that the simulation ends outside the solar system and everything outside of it is just a fancy skybox?

I think this market is going to be systematically biased upwards because:

If there are aliens: this market will resolve to yes at finite time

If there are no aliens: this market is unlikely to resolve to No at finite time

So there will be less no voters due to reward discounting

(sorry accidentally replied to wrong comment and don't see a way to delete)

Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

There's this species on the third planet around Sol that seems to have human-level intelligence..

Why 2050 close date? @Socrates

https://sideways-view.com/2018/03/23/on-seti/

Does this resolve? Is so how?

Excluding us, I assume.

And any non-human intelligent life that may arise on Earth

@GooGhoul Or Mars right? Like if we build new life in a lab on Mars that would not resolve YES I would think. It has to be not downstream of humans. So not any AI-generated life either, if the AI was generated by an AI that was generated by an AI... that was created by humans.