Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by EOY 2025?

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Ṁ2436

Dec 31

25%

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The bet will be considered POSITIVE if a frozen conflict is established in Ukraine by December 31st, 2025, similar to war in Donbass from 2015 to 2021. This is defined as:
1. A formal or not formal ceasefire agreement is in place
2. No major kinetic military operations, major shelling, or battles occur for a consecutive 3 month period
3. Some Russian forces remain occupying parts of Ukraine
4. Political resolution talks stall with no comprehensive peace deal
The bet will be considered NEGATIVE if active fighting and kinetic warfare in Ukraine continues to occur consistently throughout 2024-2025, with no ceasefire longer than 2 months.
If by December 31st, 2025, a definitive frozen conflict has not set in, but hostilities have also not ceased, the bet will be considered N/A.

Frozen conflict by EOY 2024 link

Frozen conflict by EOY 2025 (you are here)

#World

#🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war

#🇷🇺 Russia

#Geopolitics

#Ukraine

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4 Comments

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So, to be clear, if there is no ceasefire or attempts at ceasefire and the conflict continues without major changes, the bet will be considered NEGATIVE, right? The last paragraph makes it sound as if it might be considered NA.

I don't understand the difference between these two possibilities:

"The bet will be considered NEGATIVE if active fighting and kinetic warfare in Ukraine continues to occur consistently throughout 2024-2025, with no ceasefire longer than 2 months.

If by December 31st, 2025, a definitive frozen conflict has not set in, but hostilities have also not ceased, the bet will be considered N/A."

Also, what if there is a peace treaty?

@AlexandreK The bet will be considered NEGATIVE if kinetic military operations between Russian and Ukrainian forces occur with no pauses longer than 2 months at any point until EOY 2025. Kinetic military operations include, but are not limited to: artillery shelling, bombing campaigns, skirmishes between troops, heavy weaponry attacks, aerial bombardments, naval hostilities.

If by December 31st, 2025 fighting is still ongoing with no definitive frozen conflict, and no pauses longer than 2 months at any point, the bet outcome would be NEGATIVE. However, if fighting has stalled but talks are progressing on a resolution, the bet could be considered N/A past the end date.
If at any point before December 31, 2025, a comprehensive bilateral peace treaty is officially signed between Ukraine and Russia, the bet outcome would instantly switch to NEGATIVE regardless of any frozen conflict status. A bilateral negotiated peace deal would indicate the conflict is resolved and no longer frozen. Hallmarks of a comprehensive bilateral peace treaty would entail terms such as withdrawal of Russian forces, territorial concessions, security guarantees, formal declaration of peace.