arb:
https://manifold.markets/EthanL/which-party-do-you-think-will-win-f

How on earth could this possibly ever resolve "Bloc québecois"? They don't run in enough seats to be a majority even if they win every vote in every seat.

The current government doesn't even have a majority.

I know, and they didn't get the most votes either. But they do have a confidence and supply agreement with the NDP. And they do run in every riding in the country. It seems unlikely they will form the next government, but it is not impossible.

The Bloc, on the other hand, only runs in 78 out of 338 seats. It is mathematically impossible for them to be a majority. Given how FPTP works, there'd have to be a miracle for them to be the largest party – they win ~everything in Quebec and the other 260+ seats split more or less equally among the Tories, Liberals, NDP and Greens. Not impossible, but I would bet very good money against it happening.

Sure, this is already correctly priced, but it seems kinda absurd to even have that option in the market.

Hopefully Canada can rid itself of the Liberals this time around

@MarcusAbramovitch What do you personally dislike most about the liberals?

@Tumbles if i were to sum it up in one word, corruption.

nevermind

In the event of a coalition government (e.g. Liberal-NDP), does this resolve as "Other," as the PM's party, or as all involved parties equally?

@evergreenemily Coalition member with the most seats. Sorry, missed the notification for this message.