When (if ever) will AI cause human extinction?
Mini
6
Ṁ145
2030
9%
2030-2040
16%
2040-2050
9%
2050-2075
8%
2075-2100
9%
2100-2500
6%
2500+
25%
Never
17%
Present-2030

Including scenarios of humans being "extinct in the wild": only a small population preserved for e.g. research puposes.

#AI
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
4 Comments
Sort by:

it doesn't seem like this market can ever resolve to "Never"

@Stralor then again, can it ever resolve meaningfully to any of them?

@Stralor
...
You make an interesting point.

@StralorJokes aside, part of my thinking is that these markets aren't incentive-compatible in the first place (not being able to collect in the event of extinction, the long time scales...) so it's fine to throw a bone for the people who just want to express their opinions on the question.

That said, how about we circle back to this January 2501?

Related questions