Will GPT-4 be legally considered AGI?
Will GPT-4 be legally considered AGI?
Mini
11
Ṁ2150
Jan 1
7%
chance

https://www.courthousenews.com/elon-musk-sues-openai-over-ai-threat/

For a judicial determination that GPT-4 constitutes Artificial General Intelligence

  • Resolves YES if judgment B is granted, or any other court ruling causing GPT-4 to be legally considered AGI in context of Microsoft's agreement.

  • Resolves NO if there are no active cases, 1 month has passed without a derivative case(such as appeal) being filed or specific date given where Elon intends to file, and no evidence of judgment causing GPT-4 to be legally considered AGI is presented.

  • Resolves 50% if 1 month after market close and after Mira reminds traders to present evidence, that no trader has either linked evidence that the case is on-going, linked evidence that it should resolve YES, or linked evidence that the case is closed.

  • Resolves NA if this market gets fewer than 20 traders.

  • Traders are responsible for presenting evidence for this market. I may search myself, but I won't follow the case closely.

  • Default close date is end of 2024. I will extend it if the case continues in increments of 1 year. Resolves NO at end of 2030 if market is still open.

See also: Will Q* be legally considered AGI?NO‌

Will Elon Musk's "Q*/GPT-4 are AGI" lawsuit be dismissed for lack of standing?NO‌

#GPT-5 Speculation
#GPT-4
#GPT-4 speculation
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
2 Comments
9 Holders
24 Trades


Sort by:
6mo

If I'm not mixing anything up, the lawsuit was withdrawn over a month ago. @Mira I think it's a No?

"Resolves NO if there are no active cases, 1 month has passed without a derivative case(such as appeal) being filed or specific date given where Elon intends to file, and no evidence of judgment causing GPT-4 to be legally considered AGI is presented."

bought Ṁ50 NO from 8% to 7% 6mo
1y

50% if lawsuit not over doesn't seem fair to the question in the title. I'd bet this to near zero, but with this condition I might actually buy some yes.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.

Related questions