Could GPT-4 recursively self-improve to AGI with the right cognitive architecture? [@Altimor, twitter] | Manifold

Could GPT-4 recursively self-improve to AGI with the right cognitive architecture? [@Altimor, twitter]

Mini

2

Ṁ110

3023

9%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Altimor on twitter: Now 60% sure GPT-4 can be a seed AGI, with the right cognitive architecture. Defining seed AGI as a a good enough machine learning engineer / semiconductor designer to recursively self improve

(ht zvi)

Resolves if that happens, or when we get AGI and understand it well enough to claim it's impossible.

#GPT-4 speculation

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

Sort by:

I have no idea how he came to this conclusion, it doesn't seem particularly plausible.

He's replying to his post "We just had the most mind blowing breakthrough at Lindy. The formative insight of the company, I think. Couldn't be more excited, actually losing sleep over it.".

Related questions

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

+5% 1d28% chance

Will GPT-5 be capable of recursive self-improvement?

GPT 4.5 "Intelligence" via artificialanalysis.ai

Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)

Will Llama-4 be (open sourced and) as good as GPT-4?

GPT 4.5 Intelligence (higher options)

If GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?

Will GPT-4 be legally considered AGI?

To what extent is GPT-4 AGI?

Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026

Related questions

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

GPT 4.5 Intelligence (higher options)

Will GPT-5 be capable of recursive self-improvement?

If GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?

GPT 4.5 "Intelligence" via artificialanalysis.ai

Will GPT-4 be legally considered AGI?

Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)

To what extent is GPT-4 AGI?

Will Llama-4 be (open sourced and) as good as GPT-4?

Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026