AI tools will cause mass casualties or $500mn harm before 2029 such as would have been covered under SB 1047.
Plus
12
แน42332029
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Both the incident and the model causing the incident need to have been covered.
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Related questions
Related questions
Conditional on California SB 1047 law, will an AI cause $500 million in damage by end of 2026?
Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives?
If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?
48% chance
[Metaculus] Before 2032, will we see 1k deaths or $200B in economic damage caused by AI malfunction?
27% chance
Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030?
35% chance
Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?
44% chance
Will more than 1000 deaths be caused by misaligned AI before 2028?
18% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?
67% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2029?
55% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029?
25% chance