When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]
14
Ṁ3192030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
25%
Before 2026
26%
2026 - 2028 inclusive
10%
2029 - 2031 inclusive
6%
2032 - 2034 inclusive
32%
Yearly manifold poll. Do we currenly have AGI
Yes
No
I don't know
Bad quesiton
We need a majority on Yes of all answers (not just yes/no)
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?
50% chance
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
30% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
45% chance
Will >= 34.5% of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI has been achieved in the September 2024 poll?
16% chance
Will Manifold users declare that weak AGI has been achieved during or before February 2025?
26% chance
Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Will a majority of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI has been achieved in one of the 2024 monthly polls?
11% chance
Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?
62% chance
At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
66% chance
At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
64% chance