Will the technology to make a Dyson sphere exist by 2040?
Will the technology to make a Dyson sphere exist by 2040?
➕
Plus
30
Ṁ4489
2041
43%
chance

A Dyson sphere is a hypothetical megastructure that encompasses a star and captures a large percentage of its solar power output.

This question will resolve yes if by December 31, 2040, there is credible and verifiable evidence that the technology to make a Dyson sphere exists and is feasible.

#️ Technology
#Science
#Futurism
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
3 Comments
25 Holders
82 Trades


Sort by:
5mo

Does a Dyson swarm count?

5mo

You would just need self replicating robots that could strip mine Mercury for materials, create a satellite swarm at scale, and be able to usefully transmit power across the solar system. If you could capture 1% of the Sun’s energy I would call that a Dyson swarm. A Dyson sphere is much harder and not stable.

3mo

@MichaelM an agree on that count. It appears the sphere is even theoretically unfeasible and Dyson has accepted that iirc

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.

Related questions