Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2030?
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Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2030, capable of harnessing at least 1% of its power output. This artificial megastructure must at least be distributed in a ring around the Sun (i.e. it cannot be focused as a single or small (<50) finite number of large structures occupying 1% of the available angles), although it does not necessarily need to include other orbits (e.g. polar). If it occupies a ring around the sun, then both a swarm or a single monolithic structure qualify in the context of this question.

Questions with the same criteria:

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-498a9441b3bf

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4 (this question)

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/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-d3e1ad8967f8

Space exploration questions:

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c

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Other questions for 2030:

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030

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/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440

Image credits: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dyson_Sphere_Render.png

Image source: Image courtesy of Kevin M. Gill on Flickr, licensed under CC BY 2.0. Available at: https://flickr.com/photos/53460575@N03/29401385502

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Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2030

what if there was a Dyson Sphere, but then the sun got eaten?

/jim/will-the-sun-be-eaten-by-2030

wtf yeah good question, it should say "before jan 1st 2030" i'd think? tf

Why do people bet yes on this? It's impossible that humanity increases its energy production millionfold in just three years.

boughtแน€250YES

@Bayesian say what now?

opened a แน€25,000 NO at 50% order

@NebulaByte false alert, it was just nighttime

@Bayesian anxiously waits for sunrise

I assume this will also resolve YES if more than 1% is harnessed through other means. It might be that we have technology much more advanced than Dyson spheres at some point in the next 50 years.

@Nikola It would be weird if this market was trying to capture our expansion/harnessing of the Sun's power, and resolved YES for using something similar to a dyson sphere, but "wrapped around" to NO if we used something more advanced than a dyson sphere

@Nikola Can you go into more detail about what you mean here?

@RemNiFHfMN Like, if we have superintelligence, it might be that we harness the Sun's energy through something different from a Dyson sphere. Maybe star lifting, maybe something that isn't imaginable to us right now. I think that, if this market is about "how much energy will humanity or our decendants have access to", then I think this should resolve YES based on the percentage of energy harnessed, not based on the way it is done.