Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2070?
Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2070?
➕
Plus
50
Ṁ14k
2070
13%
chance

Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2070, capable of harnessing at least 1% of its power output. This artificial megastructure must at least be distributed in a ring around the Sun (i.e. it cannot be focused as a single or small (<50) finite number of large structures occupying 1% of the available angles), although it does not necessarily need to include other orbits (e.g. polar). If it occupies a ring around the sun, then both a swarm or a single monolithic structure qualify in the context of this question.

Questions with the same criteria:

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2025?NO

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2030?2%

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2040?4%

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2050?9%

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2060?11%

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2070?13% (this question)

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2080?14%

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2090?14%

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2100?17%

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2110?22%

Other questions:

Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2070?31%

Image credits: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dyson_Sphere_Render.png

Image source: Image courtesy of Kevin M. Gill on Flickr, licensed under CC BY 2.0. Available at: https://flickr.com/photos/53460575@N03/29401385502

Get Ṁ1,000 play money


Sort by:
1y

Wait, that would mean starting to be a Kardeshev Type II civilization? What would be the criteria? Does the energy need to be used towards the sustenance of at least a consciousness or can it be used for research, like a swarm of solar research probes?

Do we need to exhaust Type 1 first?

predicts YES 1y

@EmeraldPham Have updated the criteria

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.