When will my question about a majority of 41 secret bits with SHA256s first go <10% or >90% for a solid hour?
14
Ṁ7588
Sep 5
0.5%
July 1st
0.7%
July 2nd
1%
July 3rd
0.8%
July 4th
2%
July 5th
4%
July 6th
4%
July 7th
5%
July 8th
20%
July 9th
44%
July 10th
14%
July 11th
4%
July 12th or later

When will this question:

https://manifold.markets/PeterSchmidtNielsen/are-the-majority-of-the-final-bits

... first go <10% or >90%, and then stay there for a solid hour? Even a momentary blip back into the range 10% ≤ x ≤ 90% breaks the "solid hour".

In some sense, this is a proxy for the problem being solved, but with a lot of other shenanigans possible, of course.

(All days are in PDT. I will count based on the start time, so if it goes to 95% at 23:30 PDT on July 4th, and stays there for an hour, that counts as July 4th, not July 5th.)

  • Update 2025-07-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they are unable to resolve past date-answers to NO before the market's final resolution. This is due to a technical limitation of the chosen market type.

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@PeterSchmidtNielsen I think there's a way to resolve the individual ones, might be an idea so people don't just bet against the previous day

@MartinSundhaug I think I may have accidentally picked a question type that prevents me from resolving some answers to "no" early. I don't see an option for that, but I know what you're talking about, as I've done that in other markets I've made in the past.

bought Ṁ250 July 2nd NO

this market may be set to resolve too soon

@Na3wt54zergd Ack, you're correct, thanks, I fixed it.