Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
Mini
304
Ṁ79k
2028
33%
Gavin Newsom
19%
Other
9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
7%
Mark Kelly
5%
Josh Shapiro
5%
Pete Buttigieg
4%
Kamala Harris
2%
Andy Beshear
2%
JB Pritzker
1.9%
There won't be a real election because of MAGA fascism
1.3%
Gretchen Whitmer

Resolves to whoever is nominated as the Democratic Party's U.S. presidential candidate at the Democratic National Convention in 2028.

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Bernie Sanders

Here's how bernie can still win

opened a Ṁ1,500 Bernie Sanders NO at 1.0% order

Bernie has said that he won’t run and that younger candidates should run instead of him.

There won't be a real election because of MAGA fascism

@Lorelai what does "real election" mean in this context? This feels like perfect fodder for heated arguments about how this should resolve.

The option "someone else" needs to be N/A as there is already an other option.

bought Ṁ10 Gavin Newsom YES

Newsom 50%+

bought Ṁ40 Mark Kelly NO

I see a few Mark Kelly fans here… maybe you want to bet on him (Or someone else) finishing top 2 in any state?

@MachiNi hail to the queen

You need to add Mark Kelly as an option.

@AlanMurphy I added it, Also Btw if you want to add someone, you can for 25 mana

related:

Related:

@PaperBoy he wasn't born in the US

bought Ṁ100 Answer #c8NdQhQucu NO

@zsig oh lol didn’t know that. But that’s a great reason to vote no!

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
opened a Ṁ250 Alexandria Ocasio-Co... NO at 10% order

@DylanSlagh My suspicion is that she's not going to run in 2028, because she's going to try and replace Schumer when his term ends that year.

@Marnix Honestly, at this point, I could definitely see her going for president and someone like Lander going for Schumer's seat if he doesn't go for governor in 2026. I'm fairly sure she prefers the national stage to something like NY Governor based on half-remembered past reporting.

Is the distinction between 'Democratic nominee's and 'Democrat nominee's the point of this market? I assume it's recognized that, in the U.S. political system, a "democratic nominee" refers to someone selected through any democratic process (voting by citizens or representatives), while a "Democrat nominee" specifically means the candidate chosen to represent the Democratic Party in an election. It's a subtle but very important distinction. Is this intentional? Or, is this a joke?

What's wrong with the liquidity on this market. Supposedly 1300 in liquidity subsidies but half the options move like 10% on 1 mana

sold Ṁ35 Answer #qySCdL0EqS YES

Can't be, he'll be term limited after the next four years.

What's up with the graph of this market?