Will any of the first 5 named hurricanes of the Atlantic Hurricane Season make landfall?

Ṁ851

Nov 30

17%

chance

ALL

Named Hurricane

Reliable source reports it as making landfall as a hurricane

2025 hurricane season (before, during, after)

Update 2025-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there are fewer than 5 named hurricanes in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, this market will resolve NO rather than waiting for future seasons/storms.

#2025 Hurricane Season

#Natural Disasters

#Extreme Weather

#Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Seems like it might be none from 4 if this is correct about Imelda passing just south of Bermuda.
So chance should be below 20%? Or could there be a reliable report from elsewhere?

The center of Imelda passed just south of Bermuda a few hours ago,
with sustained hurricane force winds reported at one of the
elevated stations there.

If there are fewer than 5 hurricanes in 2025 does this resolve no or wait for 5 to be reached counting 2026 hurricanes as part of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
(I would prefer not to have to wait for resolution but maybe "2025 hurricane season (before, during, after)" means we have to wait?

@Predictor ^

@ChristopherRandles Would resolve no.

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