Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Japan has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031. This device must be under the sovereign control of the Japanese State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.
Different countries:
Will Japan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?40% (this question)
Will Australia acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?10%
Will South Korea acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?40%
Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?19%
Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?19%
Will Vietnam acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?7%
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?34%
Will Saudi Arabia acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?20%
Will Turkey acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?28%
Will Sweden acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?9%
Will Indonesia acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?6%
Will Brazil acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?7%
Will Nigeria acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?4%
Will Nauru acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?8%
Are we just ignoring the semi-open secret that Carrier Group Five (allegedly) carries nukes, with guarantees to the Japanese government from the US that they'll be deployed on their behalf? It's not quite Japanese nukes - that's culturally difficult and politically complicated - but it seems like it's not quite no nukes, y'know?
@AndrewHartman for the purpose of this question the nuclear weapons must be unambiguously under the control of the Japanese state
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