Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Iran has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031. This device must be under the sovereign control of the Iranian State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.

Different countries:

Will Japan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?40%‌

Will Australia acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?10%‌

Will South Korea acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?40%‌

Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?19%‌

Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?19%‌

Will Vietnam acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?7%‌

Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?34%‌ (this question)

Will Saudi Arabia acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?20%‌

Will Turkey acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?28%‌

Will Sweden acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?9%‌
Will Indonesia acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?6%‌

Will Brazil acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?7%‌

Will Nigeria acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?4%‌

Will Nauru acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?8%‌

Will Poland acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?25%‌

Will Belarus acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?10%‌