Will a robot zero-shot assemble a 100+ piece Lego set in 2024?
➕
Plus
22
Ṁ1847
resolved Jan 9
Resolved
NO

Resolves to Yes if, in either a live demo or a credible online video, an autonomous robot system is handed a new Lego box that it has not specifically been trained to assemble, and the robot opens the box, looks at the printed instructions, and correctly assembles the set.

This does not have to be a general system; it is fine if the system is specifically trained to do Lego assembly, on other Lego sets. Applying stickers is not required.

  • Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - Resolution timeline: The market will automatically resolve to No in one week unless credible evidence is provided. (AI summary of creator comment)

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As far as I know, this has not happened, so I will resolve to No in a week unless someone posts evidence.

The site gave me some free questions, so I made a multi-year version:

https://manifold.markets/RichardBruns/when-will-a-robot-zeroshot-assemble