xAI is Elon Musk's new AI startup, founded in Mar 2023. It's rumored that they have already bought thousands of GPUs. Musk probably has the capital and charisma to poach top engineers. https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/14/23684005/elon-musk-new-ai-company-x
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@Ryannn what is the criterion by which you are going to resolve this question? The leaderboard for BIG-Bench Lite hasn't been updated in a long while, and does not list either model. The BigCodeBench Leaderboard (hard) is regularly updated, it currently lists an un-specified model "Grok-Beta". Does the BigCodeBench leaderboard suffice for market resolution?
@Ryannn any guidance on how you might want to resolve this?
@Ryannn I can outline what informed my bet: in the family of BIG-Bench scores, I could only find the leaderboard on CodeBench I referred to in my earlier comment. There Grok is behind, hence my bet on NO. I could not find other BIG-Bench leaderboards that includes both models, but maybe I have missed them. For example, this leaderboard has BIG-Bench Hard as a benchmark but does not feature GPT4-Turbo, nor Grok-2.
That said, I would ask other traders / mods for guidance on the resolution, given that a BIG-Bench score as you may have intended at the time of creating this market does not appear to exist for Grok-2.
@aleven on the the BigCodeBench Leaderboard (hard) there is no gpt-4 turbo, so how would this resolve given the grok entry on it?
@ian just checked the Leaderboard, I hope I'm not missing anything but GPT-4 Turbo is featured with a total score of 35.1.
If one searches for Grok, an unspecified "Grok-Beta" model is the only one featured on the leaderboard before 31/12 (all other entries are for Grok 3 after all). Its score is lower than GPT-4 Turbo, and this was the main reason I bet No.
https://www.ft.com/content/19cce4b5-b2dd-4c1e-a109-b500e504dbb6
