This market resolves Yes if:
Trump releases or begins to implement some sort of economic plan (e.g. tariffs)
The stock or bond markets crash in response
Trump does not implement the announced plans due to the market crash
This market resolves N/A if Trump does not assume the presidency in 2025.
Update 2025-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Criteria:
The market will not resolve NO under any circumstance until January 1, 2026.
Update 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market Crash Confirmation:
The referenced stock market crash confirms that the first part of the resolution criteria has been met.
Tariffs Implementation Update:
If the announced tariffs are not implemented or are walked back, the market will resolve YES.
There is a leaning towards resolving YES if Congress blocks the tariffs as well.
The first part of this market's resolution criteria has played out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_stock_market_crash
If the tariffs are not implemented or are walked back, this market will resolve YES. (Leaning towards resolving YES if Congress acts to block the tariffs as well.)
@SaviorofPlant will you wait for the market response on Monday to Trump's tariff EO on Canada + Mexico and resolve NO in case no crash takes place? What would it take to resolve the market otherwise?
Trump's announced tariff plans are so ridiculously bad that I think this is a realistic possibility π
I will not trade on this market though (since there's some subjectivity in resolution), except a 1 mana trade to increase the number of traders