What country will first denote a nuclear weapon in combat? | Manifold

What country will first denote a nuclear weapon in combat?

Mini

7

Ṁ252

3050

1D

1W

1M

ALL

45%

Russia

14%

North Korea

14%

Other

7%

United States

4%

India

4%

Pakistan

1.7%

Iran

1.7%

South Africa

1.6%

Belarus

1.6%

Ukraine

1.5%

Israel

1.3%

United Kingdom

1.2%

France

1.2%

China

If no weapon is ever detonate, this market will remain open indefinitely.

If there's uncertainty as to responsibility, then I will resolve to whichever country the weapon was housed in. For example, if an ostensibly Russian-operated weapon is launched from Belarus, and both countries deny responsibility, this market will resolve to Belarus.

Betting policy: I expect resolution to be pretty much unambiguous, so I'll bet in this market unrestrictedly.

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Related questions

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