Holocaust historians including Omer Bartov and Barry Trachtenberg are calling it a genocide. I think this is underpriced as Anglosphere public opinion and media coverage diverges widely from the consensus of international human rights lawyers.

@GammaLaser

Do you have a source saying that the consensus among human rights lawyers is that it's a genocide?

Both the historians you mention are have long held strong anti-Israel views. Because whether or not this is a genocide depends on Israel's intent a lot of smart people who happen to be anti-zionist understandably come to the view that it's a genocide. However, this is different from from proving this intent in court.

@GammaLaser leftist academics diverging from mainstream opinion is hardly unprecedented - these types of people also spent decades supporting Stalin and pol pot.

Is there any particular reason this keeps dropping? I for one would not rule that Israel is committing genocide but I don't think an objective observer would say any recent events have remotely come close to refuting that they are

@CainanKeyles because it was always a ridiculous allegation and at this point even south Africa has admitted they can't back it with evidence (they asked for "time to gather more", which was denied).

@CainanKeyles in the public „genocide“ often gets thrown together with all kind of other warcrimes. It is possible that warcrimes were committed, but genocide has specific definition that is clearly not met.

@Philip3773733 yeah I'd be really surprised if 1) no war crimes were found, and somewhat surprised if 2) this was deemed genocide

@CainanKeyles Because the Gaza death rate keeps dropping: https://data.techforpalestine.org/

@Shai are you saying if the death rate drops in a genocide it stops being a genocide?

I don't know what the ICJ will decide, but a drop in death rate after so much harm has already been done doesn't seem like a good reason. Specially when the international response likely played a role in Israel reducing their murderous campaign.

The main factor that will matter to the court in this case is whether Israel has the clear intent of eliminating the targeted group (Dolus Specialis).

The fact that the numbers are dropping as Israel has gained more control could provide evidence to Israel's case that its intent is to eliminate Hamas (unprotected group) and not the people of Gaza. In previous cases of genocides, as the army gained more control, the numbers have increased (which is what you would expect if the intent is there).

Gaza death rates have dropped drastically since the start of the war and I expect they'll keep going down as Hamas becomes less capable.

You can tell even activists are starting to have doubts of Israel's supposed genocidal intent as they keep trying to inflate the death count.

can't determine they're committing genocide when they're not lol.

I admire your optimism

It would really undermine the legitimacy of the court if it does happen.

kolod balevav penimah, nefesh yehudi homiyah!

"determine that Israel committed genocide" - No.

In terms of incitement charges, they are typically separate from the act of genocide itself, right? Incitement can be a part of the process leading to genocide, but it is not the same as committing genocide, or am I wrong?

How would @Shump resolve in regards to this?

@M_HK_FA This is specifically for the crime of genocide, the way it is defined in international law. I am not aware that "genocide incitement" is a crime in international law, but it won't count anyways. I have this market for war crimes more broadly

@Shump Thank you! :)

Related: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20878/icj-provisional-measures-against-israel-2024/

@causal_agency We have markets for that!

Interesting to listen

South Africa's case is so good. Obviously israel has committed genocide in gaza. However, ICJ is funded by america and appointed by the biden administration. Biden and Blinken will be found complicit in genocide. You can't run for president if you are found complicit in genocide. The case against israel won't be allowed to be found with merit.

Biden and Blinken will be found complicit in genocide.

By who (if the IJC is apparently appointed by the Biden administration)? Do you want to start a prediction market for this?

You can't run for president if you are found complicit in genocide.

Seems this might require an atrocity crimes investigation by the US first (What if a President Committed Genocide or Other Atrocity Crimes?)

Huh. Weird one. Like. They're not. But the ICJ isn't always the sanest place, and Bibi has talked about having Alan Dershowitz represent them, in terms of how serious Israel is taking this. I think the answer is probably no, but prob is >20%, like it is now.

@Najawin It's tricky. How do you prove genocide? In addition to mass killing, you need to show intent. The problem is that so many media people, celebrities, ordinary people and even ministers have made dehumanizing, genocidal statements since the war started. The South African lawsuit is full of these examples. So now Israel would have to defend itself by saying things like "they didn't mean it" or "they're not the ones actually making decisions".

@Shump Oh, we know they're not the ones making decisions. That's exactly the defense. They're not in the chain of command. Hell, Bibi is barely in the chain of command at this point.