Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?
66
Ṁ5957
2034
58%
chance

Resolves YES if Greta Thunberg does any one of the following before January 1, 2035:

  • Is listed as a signatory to a major AI safety or pause statement (e.g., Future of Life Institute's "Pause Giant AI Experiments" open letter, Center for AI Safety's "Statement on AI Risk")

  • Is listed by an AI safety or pause organization (e.g., PauseAI, Future of Life Institute, Center for AI Safety) as a speaker, organizer, staff member, advisor, board member, or ambassador

  • Publishes an explicit call for an AI pause/moratorium or endorses AI safety/pause goals, citing existential or societal risks and advocating for risk-first governance or a development pause

  • Participates in a demonstration that primarily advocates for AI pause or AI safety goals

This market does NOT resolve YES if:

  • Her advocacy focuses exclusively on AI ethics issues (bias, fairness, transparency) without addressing existential or catastrophic risks

  • Her involvement concerns only near-term societal and economic impacts of AI (job displacement, inequality) without advocating for development pauses or safety-first approaches

  • Advocacy focused solely on AI's environmental impact (energy consumption, carbon footprint) without addressing existential/catastrophic risks

  • Criticism of AI companies for non-safety reasons (monopolistic practices, privacy violations, labor issues)

  • Advocacy for AI consciousness, sentience, or model rights/welfare

  • General criticism of technology or capitalism that happens to include AI

  • Brief or incidental mentions of AI risks within broader speeches/writings on other topics

  • Attendance at events where AI safety is discussed but not the primary focus

  • Update 2025-09-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Signing alone may not be sufficient.

    • Even if Greta is listed as a signatory to a major AI safety/pause statement, it will NOT resolve Yes if she explicitly states her support is only for environmental reasons (e.g., carbon footprint/energy use) and not due to existential/catastrophic risks.

    • The market is about her joining the AI safety/existential risk movement specifically, not just supporting similar policies for other reasons.

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This may be the intended function, but this seems like a lot of modifiers to make YES less likely.

What if she signs one of the listed pause AI statements despite only focusing on carbon footprint?

@SqrtMinusOne If she signs a pause statement but explicitly states her reasoning is only environmental (not existential/catastrophic risk, etc.), this would not yet resolve "Yes".

The spirit of the market is about her joining the AI safety/existential risk movement specifically, not just supporting similar policies for other reasons

bought Ṁ75 NO from 68% to 63%

I would expect her to initially focus a lot more on the ethics stuff.

filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 62%
boughtṀ1,000YES

@DanH seeing this made me do a double take. No relation 😂

The Office gif. An upset and angry Steve Carell as Michael yells, “No! God! No! God! Please! No! No! Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!”

I can't see this resolving any way but YES. In the case where it should resolve NO, the deadline is so far out that the creator is unlikely to still be active, and the criteria so conditional that a mod couldn't quickly determine it. So it'll resolve early with YES, or never resolve at all.

@DanHomerick Why do you think a mod couldn't determine it?

@Simon74fe because it's tough to prove a negative, and a simple search wouldn't be sufficient to evaluate all the criteria details.

Why do you think a mod could resolve it?

@DanHomerick Ask the "Yes" holders and a good LLM if there is any evidence it should resolve YES. Otherwise resolve it to "No".