Will any G20 member government collapse by end 2030?
21
Ṁ5152031
23%
chance
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1W
1M
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Any member currently in the G20 qualifies, including the EU itself but not any EU countries that don't have independent membership.
YES if any member does any of the following:
ceases to exist
becomes a government in exile, losing actual control over territory
is annexed by another nation or entity and loses sovereign status
Irrelevant:
minor name changes
change in government format or ruling party (Roman Republic -> Roman Empire)
partial loss of territory
civil war, so long as one faction retains the original identity
Otherwise resolves NO at the end of 2030.
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