Will any U.S. State have more than 500,000 customers without power in 2025?
Will any U.S. State have more than 500,000 customers without power in 2025?
Mini
6
Ṁ585
2026
81%
chance

I will attempt to check https://poweroutage.us/ at least once per day (or much more often) and this will resolve to Yes if any state has 500,000+ customers without power. I will be the sole person checking for resolution so it is possible that an extremely transient event will be missed. I will not resolve based on others noting in the comments that it has occurred but if I notice the comment I will check and resolve if the condition still exists. I will also see if following on FB or twitter helps and may enlist others in my circle to make it more likely I notice.

To clarify this will only apply to the 50 US States.

United States Power Outage Map
PowerOutage.us tracks, records, and aggregates power outages across the United States.
#️ Technology
#World
#News
#United States
#Natural Disasters
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Comments
6 Holders
27 Trades


What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.

Related questions