Will the United States have more than 600,000 households without power before the end of 2025?
11
Ṁ1157
Dec 31
78%
chance

This market started 4/6/25 and only applies after that.

I will attempt to check https://poweroutage.us/ at least once per day (or much more often) and this will resolve to Yes if the total of all states and territories (as given under the "Regions" tab) has 600,000+ customers without power. I will be the sole person checking for resolution so it is possible that a transient event will be missed. I will not resolve based on others noting in the comments that it has occurred but if I notice the comment I will check and resolve if the condition still exists. I will also see if following on FB or twitter helps and may enlist others in my circle to make it more likely I notice.

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Automate this with something like https://distill.io/