
Will the AfD still exist by the year 2030?
Plus
24
Ṁ11512030
82%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if the AfD still recognizably exists in 2030. If it rebrands but otherwise retains similar enough structures, this resolves YES. If the party splits, but there remains a recognizable core AfD, this resolves YES.
If the party is banned and dissolved or if it dissolves itself or if it breaks up to become unrecognizable, this resolves NO
Related market:
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will the AfD receive >= 20% of votes in the 2025 German federal election?
99% chance
Will the FDP be part of the next German parliament?
2% chance
Will the far-right german party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), get the most seats in german parliament (2025)?
1% chance
Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the social democrats in Germany's next federal election?
97% chance
Will the SPD or AFD receive more seats in the next federal election of Germany?
Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD)
1% chance
In the 2025 German federal election, what percentage of the popular vote will AfD receive?
Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030?
9% chance
WIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?
40% chance
Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?
12% chance