Will the AfD still exist by the year 2030?
21
Ṁ5572030
72%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if the AfD still recognizably exists in 2030. If it rebrands but otherwise retains similar enough structures, this resolves YES. If the party splits, but there remains a recognizable core AfD, this resolves YES.
If the party is banned and dissolved or if it dissolves itself or if it breaks up to become unrecognizable, this resolves NO
Related market:
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
55% chance
WIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?
39% chance
Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the Greens in Germany's next federal election?
90% chance
Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the social democrats in Germany's next federal election?
43% chance
Will the AfD be the party with the most votes in eastern Germany in the next federal election?
58% chance
Will Germany have a one-party or two-party government before 2030?
64% chance
Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) be part of the German government by 2026?
2% chance
Will there be a coalition between the AfD and the CDU in Germany at least at the municipal level by 2025?
16% chance
Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030?
14% chance
Will Somebody Try to Ban the AfD?
26% chance