Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?
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14
Ṁ7163
2026
12%
chance

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

I will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2026, an application is filed at the German Federal Constitutional Court to ban the Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party, by the Federal Government, the Bundestag, or the Bundesrat

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Compare with my market, which includes all of 2026:

https://manifold.markets/LudwigBald/will-somebody-try-to-band-the-afd