Submission for Make Biden/Trump conditional markets for up to 5000 Mana, and get featured on the Manifold Politics Page! | Manifold.
Paired conditional market here: If Biden wins, will at least 20 NATO members reach the 2% target for defense spending in 2025? | Manifold
Currently, 11/30 NATO members spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense: Which Countries Meet NATO’s 2% Spending Target? (visualcapitalist.com).
Trump has threatened not to defend allies who do not meet the 2% target: Trump says he'd 'encourage' Russia 'to do whatever the hell they want' if a NATO country didn't spend enough on defense - ABC News (go.com).
More information about the 2% target and past spending stats are available from NATO here: NATO - Topic: Defence expenditures and NATO’s 2% guideline.
NATO secretary General Mark Rutte said 23 allies are spending 2 percent of GDP on defence in november 2024