Resolves YES if @Tumbles is even slightly late to pay back any mana loan that they intentionally accepted. Any extensions must have been agreed upon in advance.
@Tumbles may choose to resolve this market NO if they don't owe any mana to other users. Once they do so, they will be prohibited from taking on any new loans for three months.
I will use this description as a ledger of what I owe and when I owe it. I will update it as appropriate. All amounts listed include any fees or interest associated with the loan. Dates listed are the final day during which payment is not late (PST -8:00).
Jan 6th 2025 - Ṁ35,000 @QuantumObserver
Jan 6th 2025 - Ṁ13,500 @EvanDaniel
Jan 6th 2025 - Ṁ32,000 @Tripping
Jan 31st 2025 - Ṁ51,000 @sophiawisdom
Jan 31st 2025 - Ṁ31,000 @CharlesLien
Nuke loans due upon market resolution - Ṁ5,000 @EvanDaniel
Loan due if and when Trump wins 2024 election - Ṁ24,000 @Conflux
I owe @EvanDaniel some interest on a previous 2k loan once they give me a number
Total: Ṁ207,500 (doesn't include conditional loan)
Total loans previously paid off on time before Biden dropped out: 711,679 (short term loans not included)
Loans paid off or cleared since Biden dropped out: Ṁ645,500
Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex!
@Tumbles It is quite shocking what you are doing here and how it is all going down hill from here so much. I will ponder it again, but I am not for it so very much right now to feeling right for me.
I imagine there may be multiple motivations here, but here's some math that shows why it is actually profitable for manifold to do this:
Tumbles has 480k NO shares in this market. If tumbles goes bankrupt then manifold has to pay that out because tumbles is leaving manifold holding the bag.
Manifold gave tumbles a loan of 1.4m but tumbles was deeply negative, so in reality what they did was give tumbles ~300k of mana and the rest is just moving the negative mana debt from one place (tumbles balance) to another (the unofficial loan ledger).
300k is just enough for Tumbles to pay off all the loans listed here. So Tumbles can avoid ever defaulting (since the loan was of indefinite duration, tumbles never has to default to manifold). Therefore, Manifold ends up spending 300k to bail out Tumbles to save 480k in payouts on this market. Profit! (That's on top of the million+ mana negative balance that Tumbles already had before Manifold bailed him out, which is mostly a sunk cost - but there is a chance Tumbles could recoup and pay back some of that mana, which would be even better for Manifold if it happens.)
If that is indeed what they are doing, it is a clever profitable trade. Is it one that it makes sense for the manifold "central bank" to perform? That's questionable. But you could argue that the bailout is good for Tumbles' creditors, good for Tumbles, good for Manifold's bank account, and only bad for the people who bet YES on this market (though you could further argue that this is a skill issue - they could have predicted the dynamics here and predicted the bailout!) On the other hand though, it's probably bad to reward traders who find ways like this to drain mana out of the Manifold central bank.
Although, if Tumbles bets the mana instead of just paying back the loans, which he said he's doing, and if those bets go poorly, Tumbles could still default, and then Manifold could potentially lose up to 300k PLUS 480k here. I hope they didn't forget about this possibility haha.
@Tumbles why the mega löan is not reflected in the description? Was it "intentionally accepted"?
Any extensions must have been agreed upon in advance.
Doesn't it mean that time-unlimited loans are banned, because "unlimited"="extension not agreed on".