Tesla is planning to release self-driving taxis in June. Waymo has been scaling their self-driving taxi service for a while.

This market is to predict, between Waymo and Tesla, which company will first be responsible for a vehicle that is designed to be fully autonomous (i.e. operated with no driver behind the wheel, if there even is a wheel) and is available for public use causing a major accident. If the vehicle has a wheel, it must be operating without user input at the time of the crash.

A major accident must

• Be reported on in at least two major news outlets, AND

• Result in at least one fatality or one injury requiring hospitalization.

For a company's responsibility, either

• The company admits primary wrongdoing, OR

• The company is sued and found liable, OR

• There is a settlement made that is publicly disclosed to involve the company giving some amount of money to another party. The amount of money need not be disclosed.

Once such a crash has met all these criteria and no other crashes from before that from the other company are pending litigation, the market will resolve to the company responsible for the crash.

• Update 2025-11-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Non-human fatalities/injuries count: The requirement for "at least one fatality or one injury requiring hospitalization" does not specify that the victim must be human. Animal fatalities/injuries may qualify.

Regarding the Waymo/KitKat incident: The creator does not believe Waymo's statement about the cat incident constitutes admitting responsibility, but if responsibility conditions are met (admission, lawsuit liability, or settlement), the market could resolve based on this incident.