The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Heatwave Kill More Than a Million in India by 2040?
Mini
9
Ṁ4622040
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Based on the horrifying open for The Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson. Resolves Yes if a credible outlet reports >1 million Indian deaths from heat exhaustion in a single heatwave.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Heatwave Kill More Than a Million around the world by 2040?
77% chance
Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?
30% chance
Conditional on at least 2 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
77% chance
Conditional on at least 5 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
60% chance
Conditional on at least 8 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
41% chance
Will the number of excess deaths caused by global heating before 2100 be closer to 1 million or 1 billion?
Conditional on at least 3 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
74% chance
Conditional on at least 10 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
33% chance
How many heatwave deaths will occur in India in 2023?
597
How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?