Will a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2030?
Will a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2030?
Mini
5
Ṁ220
2030
9%
chance

Resolution Criteria:
This question resolves to "Yes" if, before January 1st, 2030, a formal, publicly released statement—either in a peer-reviewed scientific journal or from a reputable academic or research institution—announces that a human individual's mind (including their memories, personality, consciousness, and sense of self) has been transferred to and demonstrated to operate within a non-biological computer. All of the following criteria must be met:

  1. Formal Documentation:

    • The claim must be published in a peer-reviewed journal or as an official institutional report.

  2. Expert Verification:

    • At least 10 signatories must endorse the claim, each holding a PhD or equivalent in a relevant field (e.g., neuroscience, cognitive science, AI, philosophy of mind).

    • Each signatory must have a faculty or research position at an accredited university, recognized research institution, or reputable company.

    • Each signatory must have a track record of peer-reviewed research.

  3. Evidence of Mind Uploading:

    • The document must clearly state that a human individual’s memories, cognitive functions, personality traits, and subjective sense of identity have been replicated and are demonstrably operating within a non-biological computational medium.

    • The evidence should include data supporting continuity of personal identity (e.g., verified recognition of personal memories known only to that individual, consistent personality profiles, or other established psychological measures).

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.