I will not bet in this market.

This resolves YES if Tesla stock goes UP if TRUMP wins.

This resolves YES if Tesla stock goes DOWN if HARRIS wins.

This resolves NO if Tesla stock goes DOWN if TRUMP wins.

This resolves NO if Tesla stock goes UP if HARRIS wins.

This resolves to 50% if the stock basically stays the same (within $1)

Make sense? Basically this resolves YES if Tesla stock prices is correlated with Elon Musk's political alignment and NO otherwise.

I will find the average closing stock price from the week prior to the week containing election day. 28th October-1st November

I will compare this to the average closing stock price from the week after the week containing election day (to give the election results time to resolve/etc). 11th-15th November

I'm pretty sure that Tesla stock should trade on all of those days unless I'm missing something.

If the election results remain unclear or in dispute for a long period of time (say, longer than a week, and so unclear that the Manifold election winner market stays under 95% in either direction, say), I will PUSH BACK the average closing stock price by a week at a time.

This market will N/A if neither Trump nor Harris wins the election. It will also N/A if something crazy happens like Tesla being taken private or one of the candidates staging a (literal) coup or whatever.